A high order method for orbital conjunctions analysis: Monte Carlo collision probability computation

Autor: Armellín , Roberto; Bernelli-Zazzera, F.; Di Lizia, P.; Morselli, A.; 

Tipo de documento: Artículo de revista

Revista: Advances in Space Research. ISSN: 0273-1177. Año: 2015. Número: 1. Volumen: 55. Páginas: 311-333.

Texto completo open access 

JCR (datos correspondientes al año 2014):
Edición:
Science  Área: ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS  Quartil: Q3  Lugar área: 40/60  F. impacto: 1,358 
Edición:
Science  Área: GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY  Quartil: Q3  Lugar área: 40/60  F. impacto: 1,358 
Edición:
Science  Área: METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES  Quartil: Q3  Lugar área: 40/60  F. impacto: 1,358 

SCIMAGO (datos correspondientes al año 2014):
SJR:
,727  SNIP: 1,237 

CIRC: GRUPO A

Referencias:

  • Akella, M.R., Alfriend, K.T., Probability of collision between space objects (2000) J. Guidance Control Dyn., 23 (5), pp. 769-772
  • Alfano, S., Satellite collision probability enhancements (2006) J. Guidance Control Dyn., 29 (3), pp. 588-592
  • Alfano, S., Addressing nonlinear relative motion for spacecraft collision probability (2006) AAS/AIAA Astrodynamics Specialist Conference, Keystone, CO
  • Alfano, S., Satellite conjunction Monte Carlo analysis (2009) Adv. Astronaut. Sci., 134, pp. 2007-2024
  • Armellin, R., Morselli, A., Di Lizia, P., Lavagna, M., Rigorous computation of orbital conjunctions (2012) Adv. Space Res., 50 (5), pp. 527-538
  • Au, S.-K., Beck, J.L., Estimation of small failure probabilities in high dimensions by subset simulation (2001) Probab. Eng. Mech., 16 (4), pp. 263-277
  • Bèrend, N., Estimation of the probability of collision between two catalogued orbiting objects (1999) Adv. Space Res., 23 (1), pp. 243-247
  • Berz, M., (1999) Modern Map Methods in Particle Beam Physics, , Academic Press New York
  • Berz, M., Makino, K., (2011) COSY INFINITY Version 9.1 Programmer's Manual, , http://www.bt.pa.msu.edu/pub/, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824, MSU Report MSUHEP-101214
  • Chan, K., Collision probability analyses for earth orbiting satellites (1997) Adv. Astronaut. Sci., 96, pp. 1033-1048
  • Chan, K., Short-term vs long-term spacecraft encounters (2004) AIAA/AAS Astrodynamics Specialist Conference and Exhibit, Providence, RI, Paper AIAA-2004-5460
  • Chan, F.K., (2008) Spacecraft Collision Probability, , Aerospace Press
  • Dagum, P., Karp, R., Luby, M., Ross, S., An optimal algorithm for Monte Carlo estimation (2000) SIAM J. Comput., 29 (5), pp. 1484-1496
  • De Vries, W.H., Phillion, D.W., Monte Carlo method for collision probability using 3D satellite models (2010) Adv. Maui Opt. Space Surv. Tech. Conf., 1, pp. 1-11
  • Dolado, J.C., Legendre, P., Garmier, R., Reveling, B., Pena, X., Satellite collision probability computation for long term encounters (2011) Adv. Astronaut. Sci., p. 142
  • Ghrist, R.W., Plakalovic, D., Impact of non-Gaussian error volumes on conjunction assessment risk analysis (2012) Proceedings of AIAA/AAS Astrodynamics Specialist Conference, Paper AIAA 2012-4965
  • Jones, B.A., Doostan, A., Satellite collision probability estimation using polynomial chaos expansions (2013) Adv. Space Res., 52 (11), pp. 1860-1875
  • Klinkrad, H., (2006) Space Debris - Models and Risk Analysis, , Springer Berlin Heidelberg
  • Klinkrad, H., Alarcon, J.R., Sanchez, N., Collision avoidance for operational ESA satellites (2005) ESA SP, 587, pp. 509-514
  • Koutsourelakis, P.S., Pradlwarter, H.J., Schuëller, G.I., Reliability of structures in high dimensions, part I: Algorithms and applications (2004) Probab. Eng. Mech., 19 (4), pp. 409-417
  • McKinley, D., Development of a nonlinear probability of collision tool for the earth observing system (2006) AIAA Journal, Paper AIAA-2006-6295
  • Metropolis, N., Rosenbluth, A.W., Rosenbluth, M.N., Teller, A.H., Teller, E., Equation state calculation by fast computing machines (1953) J. Chem. Phys., 21 (6), pp. 1087-1093
  • Morselli, A., Armellin, R., Di Lizia, P., Bernelli Zazzera, F., A high order method for orbital conjunctions analysis: Sensitivity to initial uncertainties (2014) Adv. Space Res., 53 (3), pp. 490-508
  • Paielli, R.A., Erzberger, H., Conflict probability estimation for free flight (1997) J. Guidance Control Dyn., 20 (3), pp. 588-596
  • Pastel, R., Estimating satellite versus debris collision probability via the adaptive splitting technique (2011) Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference on Computer Modeling and Simulation, Mumbai, India
  • Patera, R.P., General method for calculating satellite collision probability (2001) J. Guidance Control Dyn., 24 (4), pp. 716-722
  • Patera, R.P., Satellite collision probability for nonlinear relative motion (2003) J. Guidance Control Dyn., 26 (5), pp. 728-733
  • Patera, R.P., Calculating collision probability for arbitrary space-vehicle shapes via numerical quadrature (2005) J. Guidance Control Dyn., 28 (6), pp. 1326-1328
  • Patera, R.P., Collision probability for larger bodies having nonlinear relative motion (2006) J. Guidance Control Dyn., 26 (6), pp. 1468-1471
  • Patera, R.P., Space vehicle conflict-Avoidance analysis (2007) J. Guidance Control Dyn., 30 (2), pp. 492-498
  • Patera, R.P., Space vehicle conflict probability for ellipsoidal conflict volumes (2007) J. Guidance Control Dyn., 30 (6), pp. 1818-1821
  • Pradlwarter, H.J., Pellissetti, M.F., Schenk, C.A., Schuëller, G.I., Kreis, A., Fransen, S., Calvi, A., Realistic and efficient reliability estimation for aerospace structures (2005) Comput. Method Appl. M., 194 (1216), pp. 1597-1617
  • Righetti, P., Sancho, F., Lazaro, D., Damiano, A., Handling of conjunction warnings in EUMETSAT flight dynamics (2011) J. Aerosp. Eng. Sci. Appl., 3 (2), pp. 39-53
  • Rosenblatt, M., Remarks on a multivariate transformation (1952) Ann. Math. Stat., 23 (3), pp. 470-472
  • Sabol, C., Binz, C., Segerman, A., Roe, K., Schumacher, P.W., Jr., Probability of collision with special perturbation dynamics using the Monte Carlo method (2011) Adv. Astronaut. Sci., 142, pp. 1081-1094
  • Shepperd, S., Universal Keplerian state transition matrix (1985) Celestial Mech., 35 (2), pp. 129-144
  • Zio, E., Pedroni, N., Estimation of the functional failure probability of a thermal-hydraulic passive system by subset simulation (2009) Nucl. Eng. Des., 229 (3), pp. 580-599
  • Zio, E., Pedroni, N., Functional failure analysis of a thermal-hydraulic passive system by means of line sampling (2009) Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf., 94 (11), pp. 1764-1781
  • Zuev, K.M., Beck, J.L., Au, S.-K., Katafygiotis, L.S., Bayesian post-processor and other enhancements of subset simulation for estimating failure probabilities in high dimensions (2012) Comput. Struct., 92, pp. 283-296